Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, February 15th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic news. Stocks are pressuring bonds with sizable gains but not as much as we would expect. The Dow is currently up 335 points while the Nasdaq is up 36 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.67%), which may cause a slight increase to this morning’s mortgage rates.

4/32

Bonds

30 yr - 2.67%

335

Dow

25,774

36

NASDAQ

7,463

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

January's Industrial Production data was released at 9:15 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.6% decline in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was well below expectations of a 0.1% rise and indicates that parts of the manufacturing sector softened last month. That is good news for mortgage rates since it points towards weaker economic activity. However, this is only a moderately important report. Accordingly, we have seen just a slight reaction in mortgage pricing.

Medium

Negative

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Today’s second release was February's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM. This release gave us the bad news of the morning. It showed a reading of 95.5 that was higher than forecasts and a good-sized increase from December’s 91.2. The increase means surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial and employment situations than they did in December. That is taken as a negative for bonds and mortgage rates because a higher level of confidence usually translates into stronger consumer spending that fuels economic growth. Fortunately, this is only considered to be a moderately influential release, preventing a heavy impact on rates.

---

Unknown

Holiday Schedule

Next week gives us a couple of economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting and a fairly large number of Fed speaking engagements. The markets will be closed Monday for the President’s Day holiday. Look for details on the week’s entire calendar in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.