Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, October 23th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory. Stocks are starting the week mixed with the Dow up 22 points and the Nasdaq down 14 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.36%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

5/32

Bonds

30 yr - 2.36%

22

Dow

23,351

14

NASDAQ

6,614

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

None

There is nothing of importance set for release today that is likely to influence mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us the release of four economic reports that may, in addition to two Treasury auctions that have the potential to do so. The most important data comes later in the week, so we should see the most movement in rates those days.

High

Unknown

Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders report for September will start this week’s events at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. Analysts are currently calling for an increase of 1.3% in new orders for products such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. If we see a large increase in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. On the other hand, a significant decline should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast. Therefore, a small variance in order either way, likely will have little effect on Wednesday's bond trading or mortgage pricing.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

September's New Home Sales is Wednesday’s second release, also coming from the Commerce Department. This report covers the small percentage of home sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report didn't include. It is expected to show a small decline in sales of newly constructed homes, but I don't see this report having much of an impact on mortgage rates regardless what it shows. I believe the markets will be much more focused on the Durable Goods Orders data.

---

Unknown

none

Overall, look for Friday to be the most active day for mortgage rates, although stock earnings news could still affect the broader markets and possibly mortgage rates any day. I suspect this will be a fairly active week for mortgage rates but the likelihood of seeing a significant move in rates seems to be somewhat limited to Friday unless something unexpected happens.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.